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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-22 10:50:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220850 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 SFMR data from the last leg of the 53rd Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated a couple of 48-50 kt winds, but were associated with a significant spike in the rainfall rate. Additionally, the flight-level winds were only 36 kt in that area and the central pressure has increased a little to 1005 mb. The cloud pattern has improved during the past several hours with deep convection developing near the center and spiral bands forming over the eastern portion of cyclone. Based on a blend the hurricane hunter data and current subjective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt. Although the UW-CIMSS shear product and global models indicate a favorable upper wind pattern, GOES-16 sounder analysis data show a higher than normal vertically stable environment in the western Caribbean. This negative contribution maybe what's hampering significant development. Consequently, as shown in the previous advisory, only modest strengthening is indicated in the NHC forecast through 48 hours. Only the Decay SHIPS and LGEM intensity models indicate that Marco will become a hurricane in a couple of days. Both the HMON and HWRF have backed off of showing a hurricane in the Gulf. Afterward, increasing west-southwesterly shear should lead to weakening as the cyclone turns toward the northwestern Gulf coast. The NHC forecast lies between the higher LGEM/Decay SHIPS solution and the lower NOAA HCCA intensity model which indicates a peak intensity of 55 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 335/10 kt. Marco is being steered toward the northwest by a mid- to upper-level cut-off low and associated trough extending into the southwestern Gulf from the Mississippi Valley. By Sunday, the aforementioned feature is forecast to lift northeastward allowing the subtropical ridge to build back over the central gulf. This should cause Marco to turn northwestward and west-northwestward early next week toward the the northwestern Gulf coast. Large-scale guidance generally agree that any binary direct or indirect interaction, while both systems are in the gulf and at near equal latitude, is unlikely at this point. The official track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous advisory and lies just to the left of the various multi-model consensus aids. The 34 kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the aircraft reconnaissance data and a 0224 UTC scatterometer pass. Key Messages: 1. Marco is forecast to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday as it approaches the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated on Sunday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 19.6N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 20.9N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 22.5N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 24.1N 88.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 25.7N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 27.3N 91.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 28.3N 93.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 29.1N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/0600Z 29.6N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-22 10:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARCO A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 the center of Marco was located near 19.6, -85.4 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 8
2020-08-22 10:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 220849 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...MARCO A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 85.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 85.4 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will approach the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday followed by a track toward the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area this afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Far western Cuba: 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-22 10:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 220849 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) 1(13) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 11(36) 1(37) 1(38) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 30(51) 3(54) 1(55) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) X(17) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 6(43) 1(44) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 2(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 2(19) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 8(33) 2(35) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 2(19) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 2(20) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 12(30) 4(34) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 4(22) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 5(22) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) 4(32) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 3(23) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) 4(27) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 5(24) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 4(17) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 17 7(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 26 8(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HAVANA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-08-22 10:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 220849 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.4W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.9N 86.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 87.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 88.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.7N 89.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.3N 91.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.3N 93.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 29.1N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 29.6N 97.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 85.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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