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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-22 01:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 23:56:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 21:24:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-22 01:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LAURA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 21 the center of Laura was located near 16.8, -62.6 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-08-22 01:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 212355 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 800 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 ...LAURA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 62.6W ABOUT 250 MI...415 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Laura. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 62.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola Saturday night and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday night and early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-21 23:25:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 212125 CCB TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 Corrected formatting and initial intensity A poorly-defined convective band has become evident over the southeastern portion of the circulation. However, there is little or no deep convection near the estimated center. Overall, the system's cloud pattern still has a ragged appearance. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and the current intensity is held at 40 knots based on continuity from Hurricane Hunter observations from earlier today. There is a fairly well-defined upper-level outflow pattern at this time, but an upper-level trough to the west of Laura could be an impediment to future strengthening. The official intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus mainly due to the influences of the land masses of the Greater Antilles. At days 4-5, the intensity forecast is also a bit below the consensus due to uncertainties at these longer forecast ranges. The center is not very easy to see, even on visible or radar images, but the best guess at an initial motion is 275/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much from the previous advisory package. Laura should move generally west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge for about the next 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward as it begins to move around the western side of the ridge. The track guidance has shifted westward at days 4-5 and so has the official forecast, which is mostly close to the model consensus, but not quite as far west as that guidance in the latter part of the forecast period. Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Laura shortly. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today through Saturday, Tropical Storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over Portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.1N 61.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.7N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 18.6N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 20.5N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 24/0600Z 22.0N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 26.3N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 29.0N 89.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-21 22:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 20:54:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 21:24:48 GMT
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