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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-08-21 19:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 211736 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 ...LAURA EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 60.8W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Laura. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.8 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands later today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the southern Haitian Peninsula through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches are expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday night and early Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-21 17:15:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 642 WTNT33 KNHC 211515 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 Corrected to include Montserrat in the Tropical Storm Warning ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 60.2W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, Montserrat, and the British Virgin Islands. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Cabron to the border with Haiti. The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Cabron to the border with Haiti * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Laura. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a generally west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the southern Haitian Peninsula through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday night and early Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-21 17:14:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 211514 CCA TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MONTSERRAT IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CABRON TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA AND MONTSERRAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CABRON TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 60.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 60.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 59.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 60.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-21 16:57:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 14:57:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 14:57:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-21 16:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211456 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating the system this morning and found that the maximum winds have increased to near 40 kt, and therefore the cyclone is being named. The Hurricane Hunters also found that the center of the storm is located somewhat to the south of previous estimates. The system is better organized than it was yesterday, but still lacks well-defined banding features. However, some upper-level outflow is now noted over the southern portion of the circulation. The official forecast calls for some slow strengthening during the next couple of days, but the intensity forecast is quite uncertain and depends on how much interaction with land will occur. For now, we will assume that the northern part of the circulation will remain over water so that the system will not be too disrupted by Hispaniola and Cuba. The official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus except at days 4 and 5 where it is a little lower due to these uncertainties. With the repositioning of the center, the motion is very uncertain but is estimated to be 270/16 kt. Laura is expected to move mainly west-northwestward on the south side of a subtropical high pressure system over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest as it moves around the western periphery of the high. The official track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one and is on the northern side of the guidance suite. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today through Saturday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands Saturday and Sunday, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northeast U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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