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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-08-22 16:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 221454 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Reconnaissance data, geostationary and microwave satellite imagery, and radar data from Cuba all indicate that Marco is strengthening quickly this morning. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 69 kt, and there were several SFMR measurements of 50-55 kt to the northeast of the center. These data support raising Marco's initial intensity to 55 kt, and the central pressure based on dropsonde data has fallen to 992 mb. The crew on the plane reported the formation of a partial eyewall, which agrees with what we've seen on recent microwave and radar images. The track forecast has been complicated by the fact that the plane has fixed Marco's center to the east of the previous forecast track, and that makes the current motion north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. The subtropical ridge currently located over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to build westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days, and this expanding ridge is expected to push Marco northwestward and then eventually westward while the cyclone moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This general thinking has not changed, but the adjusted initial position ended up shifting the track guidance to the north and east on this cycle. In response, the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward and northward during the first 3 days and is generally between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. Marco has finally tapped into the favorable conditions over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone's overall small size and small radius of maximum winds makes it susceptible to quick changes in intensity. The tropical storm is just beginning to move into a higher zone of shear to its north, but conditions should remain conducive enough for Marco to intensity to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. After that time, southwesterly shear is expected to increase over 20 kt by day 2 and then over 30 kt by day 3, and those conditions, along with the cyclone's small size, should cause weakening as Marco gets closer to the central and northwestern Gulf coast. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased during the first 2 days and lies above the HCCA/Florida State Superensemble solutions but below the SHIPS/LGEM scenarios. The intensity forecast comes back in line with the previous forecast by day 3 during the expected weakening phase, and Marco is ultimately expected to dissipate over Texas by the end of the forecast period. The updated track forecast suggests that watches could be required for a portion of the central Gulf Coast later today. Key Messages: 1. Marco is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight, and tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and in extreme western Cuba. Heavy rainfall is also expected in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in flash flooding. 2. Marco is expected to move across the central Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane Sunday and approach the central Gulf Coast on Monday. There is an increasing risk of impacts from storm surge, winds, and heavy rainfall from the upper Texas coast to Louisiana early next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Marco, as storm surge, tropical storm, and/or hurricane watches could be issued later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 20.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 23.9N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 25.6N 88.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 27.2N 89.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 28.5N 91.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 29.1N 93.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 29.3N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-08-22 16:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 221454 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN YUCATAN COAST SOUTH OF CANCUN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA * CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARCO. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 85.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 86.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.9N 87.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.6N 88.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.2N 89.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 91.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.1N 93.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.3N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-08-22 16:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 221452 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 Laura is producing considerable deep convection but the cloud pattern remains disorganized. Surface observations indicate that the center is still not well defined, but the San Juan WSR-88D radar shows a mid-level center south of eastern Puerto Rico. The radar also shows heavy rains spreading over that island. The initial intensity estimate remains at 35 kt based on continuity. As noted in previous discussions, the intensity forecast for Laura is dependent on its future track. The official forecast, like the previous one, moves the center over the land masses of Hispaniola and Cuba for the next couple of days which should limit intensification at least through the weekend. After Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico, warm waters should lead to strengthening and the system is likely to become a hurricane in 3 to 4 days. The official intensity forecast is close to the consensus guidance. At this time the influence of small tropical cyclone Marco, which should move over the northwestern Gulf about a day or two before Laura, is not expected to be significant. This could change in the coming days however. The initial motion estimate remains quite uncertain and is near 280/16 kt. No significant changes are being made to the official track forecast. Laura is likely to move on a generally west-northwestward track on the periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area for the next few days. By day 4, the system should turn northwestward while moving along the southwestern side of the high. The official track forecast is only slightly north of the dynamical model consensus at 36-72 hours and essentially the same as the consensus otherwise. The GFS and its ensemble mean are significantly farther west of the official forecast at days 3 and beyond, which suggests relatively low confidence in the longer-range track of Laura. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.8N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.6N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 19.4N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 20.9N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 22.4N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/0000Z 23.7N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 25/1200Z 25.2N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 27.9N 90.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 31.6N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics

2020-08-22 16:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 14:43:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 15:24:58 GMT

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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2020-08-22 16:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 057 FONT13 KNHC 221442 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) X(34) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) X(45) X(45) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) 1(18) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 3(31) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 13(33) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 38(49) 8(57) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 17(34) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 13(53) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 21(33) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 19(36) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 21(34) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 21(35) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 12(34) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 18(34) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 1(42) X(42) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) X(29) X(29) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 30(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 5 57(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 21 48(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) SANTO DOMINGO 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) AGUADILLA PR 34 84 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 11(32) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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