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Tropical Storm Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-01 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 012035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Larry Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-01 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 012035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 ...LARRY STRENGTHENING QUICKLY AND NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 29.4W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 29.4 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Thursday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a hurricane tonight and a major hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-01 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 012035 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 29.4W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 29.4W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 28.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.6N 31.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.0N 34.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.7N 38.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.6N 40.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.6N 43.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 29.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-01 20:29:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY GETTING STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:30 PM CVT Wed Sep 1 the center of Larry was located near 12.4, -28.5 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Larry Update Statement
2021-09-01 20:29:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 530 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 827 WTNT62 KNHC 011829 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Larry Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 530 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 ...LARRY GETTING STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that Larry's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h), with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 530 PM CVT...1830 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 28.5W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven
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