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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 11A
2020-07-24 13:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241155 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 800 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 52.8W ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), satellite data indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 52.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Saturday within the Hurricane Watch area. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hanna (AT3/AL082020)
2020-07-24 13:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HANNA A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH... As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 the center of Hanna was located near 27.1, -92.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 6A
2020-07-24 13:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241153 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 700 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HANNA A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 92.8W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located by a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 92.8 West. Hanna is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a generally westward motion through the weekend. On the forecast track, the storm center should make landfall along the Texas coast within the warning area on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected until the tropical cyclone makes landfall. Steady weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. During the past few hours, a buoy located east of the center reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). Reports from the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by tonight or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches through Sunday night in south Texas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-24 10:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 08:48:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 08:48:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-07-24 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Gonzalo's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone continues to produce an area of deep convection, although quite shapeless, with very cold cloud tops. A compromise of the subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB along with an earlier SATCON estimate of 55 kt yields an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft scheduled to investigate the storm later this afternoon will provide a more precise intensity estimate. The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance as well as the deterministic models all show Gonzalo strengthening as it approaches the southern Windward Islands. The HWRF, Decay SHIPS and the LGEM are the only guidance indicating a hurricane around the 36 hour period. Afterward, Gonzalo is forecast to move into a more inhibiting thermodynamic environment over the weekend. Accordingly, the intensity forecast calls for weakening on Sunday as Gonzalo enters the eastern Caribbean sea and dissipation in 96 hours, or sooner as a couple of the large-scale models suggest. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory through 36 hours, indicating a hurricane approaching and moving over the southern Windward Islands, and a faster weakening trend afterward, out of respect to the global model's prediction. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/12 kt and Gonzalo is being steered by a building subtropical ridge to the system's north. The cyclone is expected to increase in forward speed toward the west and west-northwest through the entire period. The NHC official forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the various consensus aids. Key Messages 1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning and Watches are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 10.0N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 10.3N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 11.0N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 13.7N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 14.0N 69.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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