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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-05-08 10:41:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 080841 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0900 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 77.8W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 60SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 77.8W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.7N 77.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 31.9N 78.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.2N 78.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.8N 78.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.1N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 37.7N 75.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 43.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 77.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Subtropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-08 07:54:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 05:54:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 04:08:44 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)
2015-05-08 07:51:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... As of 2:00 AM EDT Fri May 8 the center of ANA was located near 31.5, -77.7 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 1A
2015-05-08 07:51:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 080551 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 77.7W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM) FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ANA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS
Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-05-08 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080233 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 Satellite imagery shows some increase in deep convection this evening, and the low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is now being designated as a subtropical storm. Based on adjusted SFMR winds from a hurricane hunter aircraft that has been investigating the system, the current intensity is set at 40 kt. Data from the aircraft also show that the radius of maximum winds has decreased somewhat from earlier today, but at 80 n mi it is still too large to justify classifying Ana as a tropical cyclone at this time. Since there has been more deep convection occurring near the center over the past several hours, it is becoming more likely that Ana will make the transition into a tropical storm within the next day or so. The storm should remain situated near or over the Gulf Stream for the next 24-36 hours, which would allow for some slight strengthening. Later in the period, as the cyclone approaches the coast, weakening is expected due to the influence of cooler shelf waters. The system has not moved much over the past 24 hours and the initial motion estimate is 350/2. Ana is likely to remain located to the south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern for the next 48 hours or so. Global models show the block breaking down over the weekend, which should allow Ana to move inland over the southeastern U.S. Near the end of the forecast period, the system should accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a broad trough. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus. We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for providing valuable observations, given their limited resources prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season. Note that the name Ana is pronounced AH-nah. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 31.5N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 31.6N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 31.7N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 31.9N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 32.3N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 33.4N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0000Z 36.1N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 13/0000Z 41.0N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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