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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-30 21:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 302039 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019 Cloudiness and showers associated with a small low pressure system embedded within a larger non-tropical low over the north-central Atlantic have become better organized during the day. The cyclone has a broken convective band that wraps about halfway around its eastern semicircle, with a small area of central convection near its center. The cloud tops within the convection are not particularly cold and the system is co-located with a large upper-level low, so it is initially designated as a subtropical cyclone. The intensity is assessed as 40 kt based primarily on earlier ASCAT data. It is worth mentioning that the system also has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, since the radius of maximum winds is not very large and the system has some moderate central convection. Much like Pablo just a few days ago, Rebekah is currently rotating around a larger non-tropical low pressure system. The initial motion estimate is 080/11 kt, but an east-northeastward motion is expected later tonight. The track model spread is larger than normal and confidence in the track forecast is low, though most of the models generally show Rebekah turning back toward the east by early Friday, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast until it dissipates later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rebekah is forecast to approach the western-most Azores early Friday as a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone. The intensity guidance unanimously forecasts that Rebekah will change little in strength during the next 24 h, though given the small size of the cyclone, some short-term fluctuations are possible tonight. Most of the dynamical models then forecast that Rebekah's convection will decrease substantially by early Friday, likely due to a combination of colder SSTs and unfavorable upper-level winds. The cyclone is therefore forecast to become post-tropical around that time, and gradual weakening is expected. Rebekah will likely dissipate by the weekend, if not sooner. Since Rebekah is not currently forecast to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone when it nears the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 38.3N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 39.0N 38.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 39.9N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 39.8N 31.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1800Z 38.9N 26.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-10-30 21:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 30 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 302038 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192019 2100 UTC WED OCT 30 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 6(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Subtropical Storm Rebekah (AT4/AL192019)
2019-10-30 21:38:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 30 the center of Rebekah was located near 38.3, -40.7 with movement E at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Public Advisory Number 1
2019-10-30 21:38:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 302038 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Rebekah Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 40.7W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Rebekah. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Rebekah was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 40.7 West. Rebekah is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h) and is forecast to turn toward the east-northeast tonight. A turn back toward the east and east-southeast is anticipated on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated for the next day or so. Gradual weakening is anticipated thereafter, and Rebekah is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rebekah is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone when it moves near the Azores in a day or so. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for hazard information in the Azores related to Rebekah. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-10-30 21:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 30 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 302037 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192019 2100 UTC WED OCT 30 2019 INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF REBEKAH. THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 40.7W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 40.7W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 39.0N 38.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 39.9N 35.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 39.8N 31.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.9N 26.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 40.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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