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Subtropical Storm Melissa Graphics
2019-10-12 16:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2019 14:56:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2019 14:56:51 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-10-12 16:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 121449 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 A small area of deep convection has persisted for the past several hours over and around the center of Melissa. Recent AMSU microwave temperature data indicate that a warm core exists at least above 550 mb. It is uncertain, however, if this warm core is due to the intrusion of warmer temperatures aloft embedded in the upper trough over Melissa, or if the warming was induced by convective feedback. If deep convection persists into the afternoon, then it is more likely that the warm core is due to the convection, and Melissa could transition to a tropical cyclone by that time. Based on nearby surface observations, the wind field immediately surrounding Melissa has contracted, with no evidence of gale-force winds beyond 150 n mi from the center. Given the convection near the center, the strongest winds are now most likely occurring in that region. The latest Hebert-Poteat subtropical satellite intensity estimate from TAFB is 45-50 kt, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON tropical estimates are 41 kt and 42 kt, respectively. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 45 kt. The upper trough over Melissa is forecast to weaken and lift northeastward through tonight, which would remove the upper-level support for the subtropical storm. Increasing westerly wind shear and progressively cooler SSTs should weaken the cyclone over the next few days, with Melissa moving over waters of 23-24 C tonight. This should cause the cyclone to lose its convection and transition to a remnant low by Sunday. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to persist for a couple of days just ahead of a frontal zone before it is finally absorbed by the front in 3-4 days. The NHC forecast is near the consensus aids at 12 hours, but a little below that guidance through Sunday, as the global models appear to be capturing the strongest winds in a frontal zone well-removed to the northeast of Melissa, and not directly associated with the cyclone itself. Melissa is now moving east-northeastward, or 070/08 kt. Increasing westerly flow will cause the cyclone to accelerate tonight through Monday. This motion will continue until the cyclone is absorbed by a frontal zone. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and in the middle of the various consensus aids. Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Gale-force winds that extend from offshore of Nova Scotia eastward over the Atlantic are not included in the wind radii since they are associated with a frontal boundary. Key Messages: 1. Melissa is expected to slowly weaken and move away from the U.S. east coast today, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England coasts around times of high tide today. For more information, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 38.1N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 38.7N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 39.6N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 40.3N 58.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 41.0N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z 42.2N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Latto
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-10-12 16:48:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 121448 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Subtropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)
2019-10-12 16:47:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. COAST... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 12 the center of Melissa was located near 38.1, -67.0 with movement ENE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 5
2019-10-12 16:47:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 121447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 ...MELISSA MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 67.0W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. Melissa is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual increase in forward speed is expected tonight through Monday. On the forecast track, Melissa will continue to move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening tonight. Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England coast today around times of high tide. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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