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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-22 13:11:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
113 ABNT20 KNHC 221111 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized near the center of a low pressure system located about 500 miles south of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If these trends continue, advisories will be initiated on this system later today while the low moves westward at about 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Bermuda is producing only minimal shower activity. Strong upper- level winds are expected to diminish by Sunday or Monday, which could allow for some slow development of this system while it moves westward and then northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are likely to strengthen again, which would limit additional development as the system moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Satellite imagery indicates that a non-tropical low pressure system is forming along a frontal boundary about 900 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to become conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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atlantic
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-22 07:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
547 ABNT20 KNHC 220538 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing since last evening near the center of a low pressure system located about 550 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while the low moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to diminish by late this weekend or early next week, possibly allowing for some slow development of this system while it moves westward and then northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are likely to strengthen again, which would limit development as the system moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A non-tropical low pressure system is forming along a frontal boundary about 850 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Berg
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atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-22 01:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
771 ABNT20 KNHC 212348 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure system is located about 600 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although the low is currently producing only limited shower and thunderstorm activity, the system appears to have become better organized since earlier today and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the low latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A well-defined low pressure system located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands has produced persistent thunderstorms just east of its center for the past several hours. If current trends continue, advisories could be issued on a tropical depression later tonight or on Saturday. By late this weekend, strong upper-level winds and dry air are likely to prevent further development of this system while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad area of low pressure is located a little more than 150 miles southeast of Bermuda. This low is producing minimal shower activity, and little development is anticipated for the next day or two. However, environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development by late this weekend or early next week when the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop early this weekend over the north-central Atlantic Ocean, midway between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: weather
atlantic
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tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-21 22:16:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
949 ABNT20 KNHC 212016 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 420 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook to update probabilities on the disturbance east of the Windward Islands. A low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 600 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although the showers and thunderstorms have decreased this afternoon, this system is still showing signs of organization. The environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the low latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands has become better organized over the past few hours, and a tropical depression could form later tonight or Saturday. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are likely to prevent additional development of this system by late this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad area of low pressure located about 100 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity. Development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to dry air and strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development when the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the early and middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop tonight or on Saturday over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-21 19:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
139 ABNT20 KNHC 211736 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 600 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although the showers and thunderstorms have decreased this afternoon, this system is still showing signs of organization. The environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the low latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A weak low pressure area located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east of the center. Strong upper-level winds and dry air should prevent significant development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A broad area of low pressure located about 100 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity. Development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to dry air and strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development when the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the early and middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop tonight or on Saturday over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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