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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-08-02 01:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 012341 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains well organized, surface observations indicate that the system still appears to lack a closed surface circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is likely to form later tonight or Tuesday morning. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Tuesday morning. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica tonight, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-08-01 19:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 011734 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, centered about 275 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Thunderstorm activity associated with the wave remains organized, but the system still appears to lack a closed surface circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate this system late this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-08-01 13:55:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 011155 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs of organization. Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to 25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-08-01 07:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 010542 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and fast-moving tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea about 200 miles south of the Dominican Republic has increased and become significantly better organized overnight. Although this system still lacks a closed surface circulation, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 45 mph are occurring on the northern and eastern areas of the large disturbance. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical storm could form later today when the wave moves into the central Caribbean Sea, or by early Tuesday as it approaches Jamaica and moves into the western Caribbean Sea. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are expected over Hispaniola today, and reaching Jamaica and Cuba by late Monday as the system moves westward at 20 to 25 mph. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this strong disturbance. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-08-01 01:38:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 312338 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean Sea continue to show signs of organization, but there is still no evidence of a closed surface circulation. This system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to cause locally heavy rains and gusty winds over portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight. These conditions are also spreading across Hispaniola, and should reach Jamaica and Cuba by late Monday as the wave moves westward near 25 mph over the central Caribbean Sea. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

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