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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 26

2015-06-17 05:00:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 170300 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA...MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES...MEXICO HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 104.5W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 104.5W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.4W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.1N 105.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.8N 106.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 104.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics

2015-06-17 01:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 23:47:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 21:05:30 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)

2015-06-17 01:42:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TINY HURRICANE CARLOS REMAINS OFFSHORE... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of CARLOS was located near 17.9, -104.7 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 25A

2015-06-17 01:42:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 162342 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...TINY HURRICANE CARLOS REMAINS OFFSHORE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 104.7W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 104.7 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by Thursday. On the forecast track, Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. However, only a small deviation to the northeast of the forecast track would bring the center of Carlos near the coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Carlos could remain a hurricane through Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.14 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area through Wednesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible through Thursday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are also possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea

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