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Summary for Tropical Depression CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-17 19:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 the center of CARLOS was located near 19.9, -105.5 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression CARLOS Public Advisory Number 28A
2015-06-17 19:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 171743 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 105.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located along the coast of western Mexico near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 105.5 West. Carlos is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Carlos will move near or along the western coast of Mexico today, and move into the southern Gulf of California late tonight or Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low this afternoon or evening and dissipate on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. During the past 24 hours, an automated observation station at Chamelaciuxmala, Mexico, reported 1.54 inches (39 mm) of rainfall. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-17 16:46:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 14:46:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 14:42:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 28
2015-06-17 16:44:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 171444 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 After a brief burst of cold-topped convection early this morning, first-light visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the convection has started to wane once again. However, a 0950 UTC AMSU overpass indicated that Carlos has been able to maintain a small but well-defined ring of convection around the center, despite its proximity to the coast of western Mexico. Satellite intensity estimates are coming down quickly and support an intensity of around 40 kt, which was used for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 330/06 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track or intensity forecast reasonings. Carlos is forecast to move north-northwestward along the coast of Mexico around the southwestern periphery of a weak subtropical ridge and steadily weaken as the cyclone interacts with the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre del Sur mountain range. Carlos is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight, but that could occur sooner if the center moves onshore the coast of Mexico later this morning, which is what the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting to happen. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the FSSE and HWRF models, and the intensity forecast is similar to the LGEM model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 19.6N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 20.3N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 21.0N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 21.6N 106.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2015-06-17 16:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 171443 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 8 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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