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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 24
2015-06-16 16:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 161439 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Recent microwave data show that Carlos remains a tiny but well- organized hurricane. A well-defined eye was noted in the microwave data, but no eye is apparent in early-morning visible satellite images. The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt based on satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane should provide a better estimate of the maximum winds in a few hours. The intensity forecast remains a challenge, and with Carlos being such a small cyclone, sudden changes in intensity--up or down--are a distinct possibility. The SHIPS diagnostics don't show environmental parameters being too hostile, and both the SHIPS and LGEM keep Carlos in the 60-65 kt range for the next three days. The global models, on the other hand, weaken the cyclone quickly, with the ECMWF showing dissipation by the end of that same time frame. The official forecast continues to hold on to the assumption that dry air and large-scale subsidence will become an issue in a few days, and Carlos is forecast to weaken gradually to a remnant low by day 4. As implied above, this intensity forecast is of low confidence. The initial motion is 290/4 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the next few days, which should keep Carlos just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. The updated NHC track forecast has again been shifted a bit westward, following the trend in the overall guidance envelope and the TVCN multi-model consensus. Since the ECMWF dissipates the cyclone in about three days, the official forecast favors the GFS solution after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.5N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 18.0N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 19.5N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 20.1N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2015-06-16 16:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 161439 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 5 22(27) 5(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 5 10(15) 4(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-16 16:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of CARLOS was located near 17.5, -104.3 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 24
2015-06-16 16:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 161439 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 104.3W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.3 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. However, only a small deviation to the northeast of the forecast track would bring Carlos closer to the coastline. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours, but weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Carlos remains a tiny hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area through this evening. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible through Thursday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are also possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 24
2015-06-16 16:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 161438 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1500 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 105.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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