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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 22
2015-06-16 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...CARLOS A COMPACT HURRICANE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 103.5W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 103.5 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected on Tuesday followed by a north- northwestward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring the core of the hurricane to the coastline. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight through Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Thursday morning, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2015-06-16 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160231 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 9(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 22(23) 18(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 1 19(20) 12(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 22
2015-06-16 04:31:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160231 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 103.5W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 103.5W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.5N 104.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 105.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.2N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 103.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-16 01:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 23:32:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Jun 2015 21:03:46 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-16 01:31:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COMPACT CARLOS REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 the center of CARLOS was located near 17.2, -103.3 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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