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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 6A
2015-06-12 07:38:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 120537 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 ...CARLOS STALLS SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 100.6W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 100.6 West. Carlos is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A very slow north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected, and Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane during the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could spread over portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos are expected to increase near the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-12 05:07:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Jun 2015 02:35:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Jun 2015 03:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-06-12 04:47:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120247 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 Deep convection has expanded near the center of Carlos this evening, but the overall appearance of the cloud pattern has not changed much. The initial intensity has been nudged up to 50 kt, a little below the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with some moderate shear expected to persist for the next couple of days. As a result, only gradual intensification is forecast during this time, but Carlos should still reach hurricane strength in a day or so. Some additional strengthening is forecast through 72 hours, with a little weakening shown late in the period as the cyclone begins to move over somewhat cooler waters. The intensity guidance has trended a bit downward this cycle, but the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one and close to a consensus of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF. The GFDL is still considered an outlier due to land interaction not shown in the official track forecast. The initial motion estimate is 345/02, as Carlos has wobbled a bit north-northwestward this evening based on the latest geostationary and microwave satellite fixes. A slow north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours while the steering currents remain weak. After that time, a deep- layer ridge will amplify over the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Mexico, which should result in Carlos moving more steadily west- northwestward after 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest by day 5. While the NHC forecast still keeps the center of Carlos offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, the forecast track has been nudged a little to the right through 48 hours and lies between the GFS, UKMET, and GEFS mean on the left and the ECMWF and HWRF on the right. Later in the forecast, the NHC track is largely an update of the previous one and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Acapulco and Zihuatanejo since the updated forecast brings tropical storm force winds very close to the coast in 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 14.5N 100.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 14.8N 100.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.0N 100.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 15.2N 101.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 15.4N 101.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 19.2N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-12 04:36:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.5, -100.4 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-06-12 04:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 12 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 120234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC FRI JUN 12 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 13(25) 3(28) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 11(14) 12(26) 3(29) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 8(20) 21(41) 5(46) 1(47) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 4( 6) 12(18) 10(28) 17(45) 3(48) X(48) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 3 11(14) 14(28) 11(39) 6(45) 1(46) 1(47) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P MALDONADO 34 2 6( 8) 9(17) 5(22) 4(26) 1(27) X(27) P MALDONADO 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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