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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-13 11:07:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 08:37:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 09:03:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-13 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS REFUSES TO MOVE MUCH... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.8, -100.2 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 11
2015-06-13 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ...CARLOS REFUSES TO MOVE MUCH... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 100.2W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 100.2 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or two, and Carlos could become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night or Sunday. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are beginning to spread over portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, and will continue to affect these areas during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-06-13 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130834 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 1(22) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 20(28) 6(34) 1(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 21(30) 4(34) 1(35) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 1 3( 4) 17(21) 17(38) 8(46) X(46) 1(47) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) 1(13) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 6( 8) 19(27) 10(37) 5(42) 1(43) X(43) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 4 13(17) 7(24) 3(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) P ANGEL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATULCO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 2(18) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-06-13 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.2W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.2W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.1N 100.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 101.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 102.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.8N 105.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 100.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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