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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-13 07:34:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 05:34:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 03:03:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-13 07:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS NEARLY STATIONARY AGAIN... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.8, -100.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 10A
2015-06-13 07:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130532 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ...CARLOS NEARLY STATIONARY AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 100.1W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 100.1 West. Carlos has been nearly stationary during the past few hours, but a drift toward the north or northwest is anticipated later today. A slow motion toward the west-northwest is expected later today and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Carlos is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are beginning to spread over portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, and will continue to affect these areas during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-13 05:07:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 02:36:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 03:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-06-13 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130235 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Carlos has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The deep convection in satellite imagery is asymmetric, with the coldest cloud tops currently east of the center. In addition, data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco shows that the eyewall is having trouble becoming a closed ring around the 15-20 n mi wide eye. These conditions are likely due to continued moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and perhaps some dry air entrainment. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 55 kt and 45 kt respectively, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The center of Carlos has made an eastward turn during the past several hours, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 045/2. Water vapor imagery shows a large mid to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico, and this may be the cause of the current motion. The large-scale models forecast a ridge to build over Mexico over the weekend, which should then cause Carlos to move west-northwestward nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Early next week, a mid to upper-level trough over the southwestern United States is forecast to move into northwestern Mexico, which could cause Carlos to turn northwestward toward the Gulf of California or the Baja California Peninsula by Tuesday. The new forecast track is similar to but adjusted somewhat north of the previous one, and it brings the center of Carlos a little closer to the coast of mainland Mexico. It should be noted that any motion to the right of the forecast track could bring the center onshore in mainland Mexico as forecast by the latest GFS run. The large-scale models suggest the current shear should abate after 12-24 hours, which in theory should allow Carlos to strengthen. However, most of the intensity guidance forecasts only slow strengthening during the next 72 hours, which may be due to a combination of drier air aloft and possible land interaction. After 72 hours, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere are expected to cause Carlos to weaken. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and it remains at the upper end of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 14.8N 100.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 15.0N 100.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 15.4N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 22.0N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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