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Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-11 22:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 112032 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 Melissa continues to churn south-southwest of New England. A late-morning scatterometer overpass indicated that the large wind field remains in tact with only a slight decrease in maximum winds, while satellite imagery continues to show banding surrounding the circulation center. A recent Hebert-Poteat intensity estimate from TAFB also suggests some slight weakening, and the intensity will be lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. Strong upper-level westerly winds will cause Melissa to weaken over next couple of days, and the storm is forecast to become post-tropical by Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone is then expected to be absorbed by an approaching front in 3 to 4 days. For the past few hours, Melissa has been moving slowly south-southeastward as the cyclone remains in weak steering flow under an upper-level trough. Later tonight, an approaching mid-latitude trough currently crossing the upper Midwest will begin to force an eastward motion, with a gradual increase in forward speed Saturday through Monday. This motion will continue until the cyclone is absorbed by the cold front. The NHC track forecast was adjusted a little to the right due to a southward shift in the guidance and lies on the northern edge of the consensus aids. Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Gale-force winds that extend well northeastward of Melissa into the central Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since they are associated with a frontal boundary. Key Messages: 1. The expected magnitude of wind and coastal flooding impacts along portions of the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southeastern New England has not changed. For information on these hazards, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov. 2. Melissa is expected to gradually weaken and begin moving away from the U.S. east coast by tonight, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 38.2N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 38.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 38.3N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 38.8N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1800Z 39.2N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 40.7N 52.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)
2019-10-11 22:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA CONTINUES TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...THOSE IMPACTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 11 the center of Melissa was located near 38.2, -69.5 with movement SSE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 2
2019-10-11 22:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 ...MELISSA CONTINUES TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...THOSE IMPACTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.2N 69.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. For information on wind and coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 69.5 West. Melissa is moving toward the south-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the east is forecast tonight followed by an increase in forward speed on Saturday. This motion will continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will move away from the east coast of the United States. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Melissa is forecast to lose its subtropical characteristics by Saturday night. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center, primarily over waters. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to 50 mph are likely to continue over portions of Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket through the early evening. COASTAL FLOODING: Coastal flooding will continue through the late evening along portions of the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southeastern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-10-11 22:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 11 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 112031 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 2100 UTC FRI OCT 11 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION ON WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 69.5W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 34 KT.......300NE 60SE 180SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..900NE 240SE 480SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 69.5W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 69.7W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 38.0N 68.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 60SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 38.3N 66.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 38.8N 63.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 39.2N 60.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 40.7N 52.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 69.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-10-11 22:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 11 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 112031 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 2100 UTC FRI OCT 11 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTAUK POINT 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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