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Tropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-21 03:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2013 02:32:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2013 02:31:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-11-21 03:31:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210231 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013 A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF MELISSA... THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS A BIT WEAKER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING THE WINDS AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF MELISSA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...DESPITE THE STORM MOVING OVER RATHER COLD WATERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE MITIGATING FACTORS OF A DIVERGENT AND COLD UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW SHEAR. NONETHELESS... IT IS HARD TO SEE MELISSA REMAINING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS SUB-18C WATERS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED IN 36H OR SO AS MELISSA ENCOUNTERS A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MELISSA IS ZIPPING ALONG TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 26 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE TRACK SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH OF A CUTOFF LOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES LATE TOMORROW AFTER MELISSA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 38.1N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 39.6N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 41.2N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 22/1200Z 42.4N 25.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/0000Z 42.8N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0000Z 41.0N 16.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-11-21 03:31:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 210231 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 8 17 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 13 17 26 39 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 93 79 71 60 40 NA NA HURRICANE 2 6 9 7 3 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 6 8 6 3 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 30KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 49(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-21 03:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA SPEEDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of MELISSA was located near 38.1, -42.1 with movement ENE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-11-21 03:30:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 210230 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 42.1W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 210SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 480SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 42.1W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 43.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.6N 37.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 200SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 41.2N 31.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 42.4N 25.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 42.8N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...210NE 150SE 60SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 41.0N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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