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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-06 16:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 061450 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESSO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 82.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.4N 84.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 87.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.4N 91.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 92.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.3N 92.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.5N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 34.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 82.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Delta Graphics
2020-10-06 13:58:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 11:58:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 09:25:49 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-06 13:58:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DELTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Delta was located near 17.8, -82.0 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-10-06 13:58:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 061158 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DELTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 82.0W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum * Dzilam to Progresso A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 82.0 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected to begin later today through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands today. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area and possible in the watch area near the same time. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will be affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-10-06 10:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060857 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Delta has maintained a very deep central dense overcast during the past several hours, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures to -90C, and perhaps hints of an eye trying to emerge. On the last pass through the center, the Air Force plane reported a 4-mb pressure fall in one hour to 968 mb, with believable SFMR values of 80-85 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt. The hurricane is in the midst of a very impressive rapid intensification episode, having strengthened over 50 kt during the past 24 hours. I honestly don't see much that will stop it until it reaches Yucatan, due to low vertical wind shear, high deep-layer moisture, and the very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean. This is also supported by SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities that are well above 50 percent for most categories. Thus, the intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt near Yucatan landfall, closest to the HWRF forecast model, which has been a good performer this year, especially after ingesting NOAA radar data. Some weakening is expected due to land interaction, but conditions look ripe for re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Almost all the guidance is higher, now showing Delta reaching category 4 status in the 2-to-3 day time frame, and the new NHC intensity forecast reflects this likelihood. However, an increase in southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the northern Gulf coast should promote weakening, and little change has been made to the intensity forecast near landfall. Delta is moving much faster this morning to the west-northwest, with the latest estimates at about 13 kt. A strengthening mid-level ridge across Florida should steer the hurricane to the west-northwest or northwest during the next couple of days. Likely because of the deterioration of Gamma, model guidance is showing less poleward motion before Yucatan, and the official track is shifted to the west for the first day or so. Over the Gulf of Mexico, Delta should slow down and turn northward ahead of a trough moving eastward across Texas in a few days. Model guidance has again shifted westward, like the last cycle, and the official forecast is trended in that direction. However, it remains slightly east of the model consensus, due to a notable westward bias in some of the guidance during this hurricane season. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150 miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph. Key Messages: 1. Extremely dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is a significant risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.5N 81.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.7N 83.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 20.4N 85.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.0N 90.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 24.2N 91.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 29.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/0600Z 34.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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