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Hurricane Delta Graphics
2020-10-06 10:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 08:55:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 08:55:25 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-06 10:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DELTA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Delta was located near 17.5, -81.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-10-06 10:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 060854 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 16(34) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 16(36) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 8(31) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 19(48) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 18(56) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 18(61) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 12(31) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 40(47) 16(63) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 11(33) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 27(51) 5(56) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 4(23) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 20(47) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 18(67) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 12(38) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 34(78) 5(83) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 34(49) 5(54) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 3(33) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 16(65) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 10(35) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 46(56) 13(69) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 10(40) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 11(44) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 41(48) 13(61) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 9(36) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 43(51) 13(64) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 9(38) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 32(74) 3(77) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 29(45) 3(48) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 3(31) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 8(38) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 7(46) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 35(49) 6(55) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 4(27) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 5(30) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 5(36) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) 3(35) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 20(38) 1(39) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 3(31) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 1(21) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) X(23) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) X(18) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 12(40) 4(44) 1(45) X(45) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 1 68(69) 25(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) COZUMEL MX 50 X 25(25) 48(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) COZUMEL MX 64 X 8( 8) 39(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 53(54) 8(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 41 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 14(39) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 17(58) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 7
2020-10-06 10:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 060854 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...DELTA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 81.3W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning westward along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to Dzilam. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum * Dzilam to Progresso A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 81.3 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected to begin later today through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands later this morning. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area and possible in the watch area near the same time. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will be affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-10-06 10:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 060853 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO DZILAM. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM * DZILAM TO PROGRESSO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.7N 83.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.4N 85.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 90.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 91.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.8N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 34.0N 88.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 81.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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advisory
forecast
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