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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2021-09-07 10:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 705 FONT12 KNHC 070845 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 13(49) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 62(62) 5(67) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 3(35) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 1(43) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) X(32) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) X(33) X(33) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-07 10:45:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE LARRY THIS MORNING... ...LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 7 the center of Larry was located near 23.8, -55.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 27
2021-09-07 10:45:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 070845 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE LARRY THIS MORNING... ...LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 55.1W ABOUT 830 MI...1340 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Larry. A tropical storm watch could be required for the island today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 55.1 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-09-07 10:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070844 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LARRY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 55.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 360SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 55.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.4N 59.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.1N 61.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 47.7N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 57.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 55.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-07 04:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 02:56:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 03:23:02 GMT
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