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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 28
2021-09-07 16:59:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 071459 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and found that the hurricane has weakened somewhat. The central pressure has risen to 967 mb, and the eyewall is becoming less well defined. Satellite imagery shows that the eye is still evident but the deep convection has has decreased in coverage and intensity. Using a blend of flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft gives a current intensity estimate of 100 kt, although this may be generous. The hurricane continues to move northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Larry is forecast to move around the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone during the next couple of days. By 72 hours, the system should begin to accelerate northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric trough moving through the northeastern United States. Thereafter, Larry should be well-embedded in the higher-latitude southwesterly flow, pass near Newfoundland and move into the far North Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and in very close agreement with the latest NOAA corrected consensus and Florida State University (FSU) Superensemble tracks. Larry is in a low-shear environment with fairly well-defined upper-level outflow. However dry mid-level air and possible upwelling of cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation appear to be at least partially responsible for weakening. Since the environment does not appear to be very hostile for the next couple of days, only slow weakening is anticipated. The official intensity forecast for the next 48-72 hours lies below the statistical dynamical Decay-SHIPS guidance and above the coupled- HWRF dynamical model prediction. By 96 hours, the FSU cyclone phase analysis indicates that Larry will have undergone an extratropical transition, and this is also shown in the official forecast. Larry is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large hurricane. Given the expansive size of Larry's wind field and forecast uncertainties, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the island. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 24.4N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 31.8N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 34.9N 61.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 50.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2021-09-07 16:59:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 071458 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 2(44) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 62(62) 1(63) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 9(30) X(30) X(30) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 28
2021-09-07 16:58:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 071458 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 55.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 55.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.8N 61.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.9N 61.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 50.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 55.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-07 10:51:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 08:51:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 08:51:25 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-09-07 10:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070848 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 Larry has maintained a very warm, pronounced eye with a diameter of around 45 to 50 n mi overnight. However, recent infrared satellite imagery and earlier microwave data show some weaknesses in the western eyewall of the hurricane, potentially signaling the entrainment of some drier air into its inner core. This could be the result of some moderate westerly shear impinging on the system. The initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt for this advisory, based on a 0520 UTC SATCON estimate of 103 kt and T5.5/102 kt current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter reconnaissance flight is scheduled to investigate Larry later this morning, which should provide more insight into the hurricane's structure and intensity. Larry is moving toward the northwest at 315/9 kt, as the hurricane is being steered around a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 h or so. By Thursday, the hurricane is forecast to turn northward within the flow between the ridge and an approaching deep-layer trough that will be crossing the northeastern United States. As the trough moves over the western Atlantic, Larry should accelerate northeastward deeper into the mid-latitudes on Friday and Saturday, passing near or over portions of Atlantic Canada. The latest NHC track forecast lies near the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and no significant adjustments were made from the previous forecast. Larry is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large hurricane. Given the expansive size of its wind field, a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for the island later today. Although the warm sea-surface temperatures and diminishing vertical wind shear along Larry's forecast track appear favorable during the next couple of days, it may not be able to take advantage of these conditions due to its large size, as well as the potential for another eyewall replacement cycle. As previously noted, Larry's broad wind field and moderate forward speed could also result in some upwelling of cooler waters near its inner core. There remains a split in the intensity guidance, with the statistical-dynamical guidance notably higher than the coupled atmosphere-ocean models. The official NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening of Larry during the next several days. Nonetheless, Larry will remain a forceful hurricane that continues to produce significant swell with far-reaching impacts through the week. After 72 h, Larry should begin its extratropical transition, and the official forecast shows Larry becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next couple of days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by Thursday. Tropical storm watches could be needed for the island later today, and interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 23.8N 55.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 28.4N 59.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 37.1N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 47.7N 52.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 57.0N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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