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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-05 22:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY REMAINS A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 5 the center of Larry was located near 20.5, -50.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 21
2021-09-05 22:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 052049 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 ...LARRY REMAINS A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 50.6W ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 50.6 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, although fluctuations in intensity will be possible. However, Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this week. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are reaching the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-09-05 22:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 052049 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 4(38) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-09-05 22:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 052047 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 50.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 150SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 50.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 51.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 53.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 32.8N 61.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 39.8N 58.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 50.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-05 16:47:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Sep 2021 14:47:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Sep 2021 15:22:48 GMT
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