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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-28 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 280239 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA NOW ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 84.0W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 84.0 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida moves inland. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba, and these winds will continue for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in flash and riverine flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through Saturday morning. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-28 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 280239 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 3(16) X(16) 1(17) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 9(24) 1(25) X(25) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 12(13) 36(49) 3(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 27(38) 14(52) 1(53) X(53) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 36(56) 16(72) 1(73) X(73) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 10(31) 1(32) X(32) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 44(67) 16(83) X(83) X(83) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 12(45) 1(46) X(46) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 58(60) 26(86) 5(91) X(91) X(91) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 17(17) 36(53) 7(60) X(60) X(60) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 32(33) 64(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 4( 4) 79(83) 6(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 57(57) 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 30(56) 3(59) X(59) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 28(29) 52(81) 12(93) X(93) X(93) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 45(49) 19(68) 1(69) X(69) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 13(44) 1(45) X(45) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 5( 5) 68(73) 16(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 33(33) 26(59) 4(63) 1(64) X(64) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 16(16) 25(41) 5(46) X(46) X(46) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 58(69) 21(90) 2(92) X(92) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 26(65) 2(67) X(67) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 21(42) X(42) X(42) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 58(83) 12(95) X(95) X(95) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 49(54) 20(74) 1(75) X(75) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 16(53) X(53) X(53) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 27(61) 2(63) X(63) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) 1(27) X(27) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 53(61) 22(83) 2(85) X(85) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 22(51) 1(52) X(52) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) X(33) 1(34) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 58(68) 18(86) 2(88) X(88) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 21(56) 1(57) X(57) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 16(36) 1(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 23(36) 7(43) 1(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) X(20) 1(21) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 23(48) 1(49) X(49) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 18(53) 2(55) X(55) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 1(20) X(20) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 12(55) 1(56) X(56) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 15(31) 1(32) X(32) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) 1(27) X(27) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 15(33) 1(34) X(34) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-28 04:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 280238 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 84.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 0SE 0SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 84.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 85.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 87.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.8N 89.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.2N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.7N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.3N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 34.9N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.8N 83.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 84.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-08-28 01:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 272349 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA INLAND OVER PINAR DEL RIO CUBA... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 83.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located over western Cuba near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 83.5 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will remain over western Cuba for another hour or two, and then move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico later tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) has recently been reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba and will continue through tonight in western Cuba. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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2021-08-28 01:49:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 23:49:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 21:22:57 GMT
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