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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-28 11:00:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280900 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 The inner-core structure appears to be tightening up with Nora this morning. Deep convection with tops colder than -70 C has been blossoming and wrapping around the center, first around the eastern side, but more recently in all quadrants as a distinct warm spot denotes the center. Earlier, there was a helpful SSMIS microwave pass at 0143 UTC that showed a closed cyan ring on the 37 GHz channel, which is a signal often related to a formative low-level eyewall and is often a harbinger for significant intensification. An ASCAT-B pass at 0403 UTC also suggested the wind-radii were gradually contracting, and also that the center position is a little further east of the short-term track. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates at 0600 UTC from SAB and TAFB have both increased to T4.0/65 kt. These estimates, in addition to the recent structural improvements in IR satellite and microwave imagery, support raising the intensity to 65-kt for this advisory, making Nora a hurricane. Nora continues to move a little more poleward this morning, with the latest motion estimate at 345 degrees at 9 kt. While the track forecast philosophy hasn't changed much over the last day, as a weakening mid-level ridge provides a weakness for Nora to escape north-northwestward, there has been a notable eastward shift in the track guidance. The deterministic ECMWF run, for instance, is now showing the hurricane brushing the shoreline of Mainland Mexico near Cabo Corrientes in 24 hours, and is now quite similar to the latest GFS forecast. The ECMWF ensembles have also shifted further east, with around half of the members explicitly showing landfall over mainland Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast has thus been shifted eastward, especially during the first 24-48 hours of the forecast, but I did not want to shift Nora's track as far east as the latest HCCA and TVCE consensus aids and further eastward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent forecasts. Afterwards, if Nora remains intact, the guidance shows the system bending back to the northwest and running up the gap of the Gulf of California between Baja California Sur and Mainland Mexico. Now that Nora appears to developing an inner core, at least steady intensification is expected in the short-term while the hurricane remains far enough offshore of mainland Mexico in a favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment. After 12 hours, the intensity forecast becomes very tricky, due to just how much land interaction Nora will encounter as it brushes by Mexico. Once again, a lot of the reliable intensity guidance shows substantial land interaction and are sharply lower after 24 hours. Because the latest forecast track has been shifted further east, it increases the chance that significant disruption of the storm may occur by the mountainous terrain located near the coast of Mexico in that location. The latest intensity forecast was lowered after 24 hours and held at 70 kt through 96 hours due to this large uncertainty tied to possible land interaction. The latest forecast remains higher than the majority of the guidance, but is lower than the previous forecast. The wind radii have also been adjusted smaller after 24 hours, as the global model guidance suggests that the TC wind field will shrink quite dramatically as the system tracks near mainland Mexico. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings have been extended further north along the mainland Mexico coastline given the eastward adjustments in the latest forecast track. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast strengthen today as it approaches the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit, and hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas and points further north should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2.Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. As Nora lifts northwest, heavy rainfall will spread into the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora as well as the southwestern U.S. during the middle to latter portion of next week. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.1N 105.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.8N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.8N 106.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR MAINLAND MEXICO 36H 29/1800Z 22.4N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 23.3N 107.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 24.1N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 24.9N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 26.4N 110.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 28.7N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Hurricane Nora Graphics
2021-08-28 11:00:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 09:00:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 09:00:33 GMT
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-28 10:59:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280859 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Just after the last advisory, the convective structure of Ida got a bit ragged, probably due to the residual effects of land interaction with Cuba and a tongue of dry air that wrapped into the eastern side of the circulation. However, latest radar images from Cuba show that the eye is becoming better defined, and satellite imagery shows cooling of the cloud tops in the eyewall. The initial intensity has been held at 70 kt based on the latest trends and earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft data. NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Ida again starting around 12Z. The initial motion remains northwestward or 315/14. A subtropical ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward through the weekend, and this feature should continue to provide a steering flow that will take Ida steadily northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico during the next 36-48 h. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Ida will make landfall on the coast of southeastern or central Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday morning. After landfall, Ida is expected to turn northward through Louisiana and western Mississippi at a slower forward speed as it moves around the western end of the ridge. Recurvature into the westerlies and an east-northeastward motion are expected by the end of the forecast period. The new forecast track is nudged slightly to the west after 36 h to keep it near the various consensus models, but this is not a significant change from the previous forecast. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Ida is expected to remain in a favorable environment of light vertical shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures until it makes landfall. The only negative factor is the possibility that dry air may try to entrain into the system and slow the expected intensification. The SHIPS and LGEM models are showing a little less strengthening than previously. However, the HWRF and HMON models continue to forecast Ida to reach Category 4 intensity before landfall. The new intensity forecast will forecast a peak intensity of 120 kt in best agreement with the HWRF and HMON, and the pre-landfall part of the forecast is little changed from the previous forecast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to land interaction, drier air, and an increase in shear, and Ida is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone as it moves through the Tennessee Valley. As Ida continues to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico, an expansion of its wind field is predicted. The NHC wind radii forecast is largely based on the radii consensus, and winds of at least tropical storm force are likely to reach the coast Sunday morning. Therefore, all preparations to protect life and property for this dangerous event need to be made today. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are ending over Cuba. However, Ida will continue to bring periods of heavy rain across western Cuba through today that may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi resulting in significant flash and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 24.0N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/0600Z 33.2N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0600Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0600Z 37.5N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-28 10:59:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 the center of Nora was located near 17.1, -105.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-28 10:59:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280859 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 105.2W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico. The government of Mexico has also issued a Hurricane Watch from north of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico, and has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo northward to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Manzanillo Mexico to Lazaro Cardenas * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere further along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.2 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A slight bend to the northwest is forecast by early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and pass very near the coast of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit by tonight. Nora is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, making Nora a Category 1 Hurricane. Additional short-term intensification is anticipated as long as Nora remains offshore the coast of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area later today and may spread tot he norther portions of the watch area tomorrow. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area later today and tomorrow. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Nora continues north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result. Additional heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible across Sinaloa and Sonora during the middle to latter part of next week as Nora moves northwest through the Gulf of California. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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