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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-28 16:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281457 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 The satellite presentation of Ida has continued to improve this morning with the center embedded within a fairly symmetric Central Dense Overcast and hints of the eye in both visible in infrared satellite imagery. Earlier microwave imagery revealed a well- defined low- to mid-level eye and excellent spiral banding over the northern semicircle. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft, somewhat surprisingly, have not found a significantly deepening tropical cyclone yet, but given the very recent increase in organization and structure, the winds are likely to catch up to the satellite appearance very soon. Using the latest flight-level and SFMR wind data from the aircraft and satellite intensity estimates the initial wind speed remains 75 kt for this advisory. The aircraft data does indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded, and the NHC wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Given the improved inner-core structure Ida appears poised to rapidly intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm water. Although the interpolated intensity guidance has lowered somewhat due to the fact that Ida has not significantly strengthened yet, the explicit forecasts from the dynamical models continue to support significant deepening, and the latest runs of the HWRF and HMON models indicate Ida will reach Category 4 strength before landfall. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification to Category 4 strength during the next 24 hours. After that time, fluctuations in intensity are possible due to eyewall replacement cycles as Ida approaches the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Ida is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday night, and become a post-tropical cyclone as it moves over the Tennessee Valley by mid-week. Ida has been moving steadily northwestward or 315/14 kt. A deep layer ridge near the southeastern United States coast is forecast to shift westward during the next day or so, and this should continue to steer Ida northwestward through landfall on Sunday. The track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement through 36 hours, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged during that time, and continues to indicate that Ida will reach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday. After landfall, Ida will be near the western extent of the ridge and should turn northward and then northeastward as it recurves into the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance has shifted slightly westward beyond 48 hours, and the track forecast over the southern U.S. and the Tennessee Valley has been adjusted accordingly. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Wind and rainfall impacts will also penetrate inland through early next week after Ida makes landfall. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today in the warning area. 3. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi, resulting in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are likely across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Monday and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 24.8N 86.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 28.0N 89.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 29.4N 91.0W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/0000Z 32.7N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 34.4N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 36.8N 85.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 37.9N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Ida Graphics
2021-08-28 16:53:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 14:53:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 15:23:35 GMT
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Hurricane Ida Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-28 16:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 14:52:34 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-28 16:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SOON... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 the center of Ida was located near 24.8, -86.1 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-28 16:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281451 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...IDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SOON... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 86.1W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward along the northern Gulf coast to the Alabama/Florida border. The Hurricane Watch along the coast of Mississippi from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border has been discontinued. The Hurricane Watch along the coast of Louisiana west of Intracoastal City has also been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch from Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mobile Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 86.1 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding impacts and significant riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts. Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba today as the storm continues to lift northward away from the island. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across western Cuba through today. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through today. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast later today and continue through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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