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Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2020-10-10 04:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 100240 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 10 8(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KOUNTZE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-10-10 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100236 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SABINE PASS...TX TO CAMERON...LOUISIANA INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...LOUISIANA INCLUDING VERMILION BAY AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 92.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 92.6W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.1N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-10 03:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...9 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA... As of 9:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 the center of Delta was located near 30.4, -92.7 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Delta Update Statement
2020-10-10 03:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT61 KNHC 100156 TCUAT1 Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 900 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...9 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA... Strong winds from Delta continue to spread inland across Louisiana. Opelousas St. Landry Parish Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h). This will be the final hourly Tropical Cyclone Update issued to update Delta's position and intensity. The next full advisory will be issued at 10 PM CDT (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 92.7W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM N OF JENNINGS LOUISIANA ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 21A
2020-10-10 01:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092352 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...DELTA JUST INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 93.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF JENNINGS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from High Island, Texas to Sabine Pass has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning west of San Luis Pass, Texas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Sabine Pass to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of High Island to San Luis Pass, Texas * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 93.0 West. Delta is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday morning. A motion toward the northeast is then expected through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that time, the system is forecast to move across northern Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected overnight and Saturday. Delta is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The National Weather Service office at Lake Charles reported sustained winds of 64 mph (103 km/h) with gusts to 95 mph (153 km/h) at the airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-6 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...2-4 ft Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area, and should continue during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning areas through early Saturday. RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. As the remnants of Delta move farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over the southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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