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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-10-21 19:39:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1800 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211739 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1800 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W AT 21/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......380NE 80SE 50SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 510SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W AT 21/1800Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 110SE 80SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 160SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 210SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 59.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

2020-10-21 19:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS EPSILON IS STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Oct 21 the center of Epsilon was located near 29.4, -59.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane Epsilon Graphics

2020-10-21 16:54:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 14:54:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 15:25:12 GMT

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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2020-10-21 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 211448 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 1 11(12) 11(23) 7(30) 7(37) X(37) X(37) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

2020-10-21 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EPSILON A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 21 the center of Epsilon was located near 29.1, -59.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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