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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-10-21 10:52:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 637 FONT12 KNHC 210852 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 X 8( 8) 14(22) 9(31) 7(38) 2(40) X(40) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-10-21 10:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 356 WTNT22 KNHC 210851 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......380NE 80SE 50SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 510SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 57.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.5N 59.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...310NE 100SE 70SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 140SE 90SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.1N 61.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.3N 61.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 110SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.8N 61.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 180SE 140SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 40.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 46.0N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 58.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-21 07:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 05:46:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 03:25:10 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-21 07:46:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Oct 21 the center of Epsilon was located near 28.8, -57.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-10-21 07:46:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210545 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 200 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 ...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 57.6W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 57.6 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a slightly slower west-northwestward motion later today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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