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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-10-22 04:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220241 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 The eye of the hurricane remains well-defined this evening, although the surrounding cloud tops are beginning to warm a bit. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Epsilon a little while ago and found peak 700 mb flight level winds of 110 kt, which continues to support an intensity of 100 kt. The central pressure had fallen slightly since this afternoon, but recent center fixes suggest that it is leveling off. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next 12 hours or so due to inner-core processes. Later on Thursday, a slow weakening trend is expected to begin as vertical shear over Epsilon should gradually increase. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model consensus. By 96 hours, the global models indicate that the strong cyclone will merge with a frontal zone over the mid-latitudes, and the NHC forecast shows the system as extratropical by that time. Epsilon's motion has exhibited what is likely a trochoidal wobble, which is typical of slow-moving intense hurricanes. This has resulted in a more westward track during the past 6 hours or so. The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt, and is indeed more westward than previous estimates. However, recent satellite images indicate little short-term motion. The track model guidance is in very good agreement that Epsilon will move northwestward and then north-northwestward on Friday and Friday night. Later, the cyclone should move north of the subtropical ridge, and turn northward and northeastward. By days 4-5, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward under the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast is right on top of the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance, HCCA and is only slightly west of the previous NHC track through 24 hours. This puts the closest approach of Epsilon to Bermuda between 00Z and 06Z Friday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 29.6N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 30.5N 61.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 31.8N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 33.2N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 34.9N 62.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 36.9N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 39.2N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 46.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/0000Z 56.0N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-10-22 04:41:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 220241 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 61 18(79) 4(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BERMUDA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-22 04:41:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BERMUDA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 21 the center of Epsilon was located near 29.6, -60.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 13
2020-10-22 04:41:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220241 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BERMUDA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 60.6W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.6 West. Epsilon is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwestward motion is expected later tonight and Thursday. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest by late Thursday, and toward the north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible overnight, but a weakening trend is expected to begin later on Thursday and continue into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) mainly to the north of the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight and continuing intermittently through late Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-10-22 04:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220240 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.6W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......300NE 150SE 120SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..680NE 480SE 600SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.6W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.5N 61.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 150SE 130SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.8N 61.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.2N 62.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.9N 62.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.9N 61.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 220SE 170SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.2N 58.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 250SE 220SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 46.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 56.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 60.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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