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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-09-16 16:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 161436 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 35(51) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-16 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 16 the center of Teddy was located near 16.5, -49.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 17
2020-09-16 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161436 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 49.7W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 49.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane by late tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America today and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 161435 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 49.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 40SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 49.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 49.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 50.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 52.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.4N 53.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N 55.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 56.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.1N 58.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 31.7N 64.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-16 15:56:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF SALLY MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ONGOING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 9:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Sally was located near 30.5, -87.5 with movement NNE at 4 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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