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Hurricane Sally Update Statement
2020-09-16 09:00:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 295 WTNT64 KNHC 160700 TCUAT4 Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 200 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA... A sustained wind of 76 mph (122 km/h) with a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h) was recently reported in Sally's northern eyewall by NOAA buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama. A sustained wind of 72 mph (117 km/h) and a gust to 90 mph (144 km/h) were recently measured by the NOAA C-MAN observing station on Dauphin Island, Alabama. SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 87.8W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-16 08:47:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 06:47:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 06:47:56 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-16 08:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160646 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Special Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy has rapidly intensified overnight. Satellite images show an eye has formed, and satellite intensity estimates are between 77- 90 kt. The initial wind speed is set to 80 kt as a blend of these data. Further strengthening is expected and Teddy could become a major hurricane later today or Thursday. The intensity forecast has been raised considerably in the short-term based on current trends, and could have to revised upward on the regular 5 am advisory. No changes to the track forecast are needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0700Z 15.5N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 08:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160645 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Special Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A 90-MPH HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 48.7W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM AST (0700 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 48.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into the weekend and remain well northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy could become a major hurricane later today or Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America today should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-09-16 08:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 160645 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0700Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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