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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 21
2020-09-16 10:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...SALLY'S NORTHERN EYEWALL WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA BEACH FLORIDA WESTWARD TO DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 87.7W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Mouth of the Pearl River has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Fort Morgan, including portions of Mobile Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Fort Morgan Alabama to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Sally was located an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 87.7 West. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast this morning, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area later today. Sally is then expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama tonight. Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight increase in strength is possible before the center of Sally's eye makes landfall later this morning. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall occurs. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 98 mph (157 km/h) and a gust to 116 mph (187 km/h) were recently measured by an elevated NOS CO-OP observing station in Fort Morgan, Alabama. A University of Florida weather tower located at Gulf Shores, Alabama, reported a sustained wind speed of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a gust to 93 mph (150 km/h). NOAA buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama, recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (115 km/h) and a pressure of 970.9 mb inside the eastern portion of Sally's eye. The estimated minimum central pressure based on the buoy data is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10 to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches is expected. Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major river flooding. Sally is forecast to turn northeastward after making landfall today and move across the Southeast through Friday, producing the following rainfall totals: Southern and central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river flooding. Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...4-7 ft Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...4-7 ft Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...2-4 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...2-4 ft Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-09-16 10:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 160854 PWSAT4 HURRICANE SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 4 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ST MARKS FL 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 12 3(15) X(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 53 4(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) PANAMA CITY FL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 44 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COLUMBUS GA 34 3 9(12) 13(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) COLUMBUS GA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 24 18(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MONTGOMERY AL 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WHITING FLD FL 50 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) WHITING FLD FL 64 58 3(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) PENSACOLA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA FL 64 67 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 50 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GULFPORT MS 34 16 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) STENNIS MS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 64 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) KEESLER AB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-09-16 10:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160853 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO FORT MORGAN...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FORT MORGAN ALABAMA TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 87.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 135SE 90SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 87.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 87.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.7N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 34.1N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 87.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-16 10:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160838 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy continues to quickly intensify. The latest satellite images shows that a ragged eye is present, although microwave images show it is closed in the low-levels. Satellite intensity estimates earlier were between 77- 90 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 85 with the increasing organization. The environment appears to be ripe for rapid intensification with light shear, warm water, and a solid ring present on overnight 37 GHz microwave data. Thus a 30-kt wind increase will be forecast for the first 24 hours from the 6Z initial wind speed of 80 kt. After that time, there could be an increase in shear from the mid-oceanic trough, which should level off the wind speed, along with possibly an increase in mid-level dry air. At long range, Teddy could also be affected by the cold wake from Paulette. The intensity forecast is also uncertain considering the guidance is still catching up to the higher current intensity, but most everything shows a large major hurricane for the bulk of the forecast period, and so does the official forecast. Teddy is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-tropospheric high should steer the hurricane in that general direction and speed throughout the forecast period until early next week when a turn to the north-northwest is possible ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The biggest change to note that guidance has almost unanimously shifted westward at long range, seemingly due to a stronger central Atlantic ridge, and the NHC forecast is also moved in that direction. Unfortunately, this change does increase the threat to Bermuda, which was just hit by Hurricane Paulette, but remember the average track error at 5 days is roughly 200 miles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-16 10:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:36:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:36:40 GMT
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