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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-17 04:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 16 the center of Teddy was located near 17.8, -51.5 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-17 04:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170243 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 51.5W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 51.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane Thursday night or Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-17 04:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170243 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy has been a perplexing hurricane thus far. The infrared satellite presentation appears rather impressive, with the center embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast with cloud tops as cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Despite the presentation, however, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T4.5/77 kt, and objective estimates range between 70-75 kt. Teddy's initial intensity is therefore set just above these estimates at 80 kt. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that Teddy's center is a little farther to the southwest than previously estimated. However, the long-term motion remains toward the northwest (315/11 kt). The track forecast remains straightforward the the next 3 days, with the guidance in good agreement that a mid-tropospheric high over the central Atlantic will drive the hurricane northwestward toward the western Atlantic. There is a little more spread among the track models on days 4 and 5, related to timing differences on exactly where and how fast Teddy begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough coming from the northeastern United States. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward during the first 3 days to account for the initial position adjustment, but otherwise it's still close to the previous prediction even with the increasing model spread on days 4 and 5. An upper-level trough situated to the northwest of Teddy is causing about 10-15 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear over the hurricane, and some model analyses suggest that there could be stronger shear in a layer below the level of the upper-level outflow. The deep-layer shear is expected to increase a bit during the next day or so, but this should be offset by a favorable thermodynamic environment, allowing for some intensification during that time. The shear might relax by days 3 and 4, but then the thermodynamic environment becomes a little less conducive for strengthening. In particular, Teddy may move over the cold wake of Hurricane Paulette, and the SHIPS guidance indicates that relatively warm upper-level temperatures could be a negative factor. All that said, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the top end of the guidance envelope, showing Teddy peaking in intensity in a couple of days and then only gradually weakening through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 17.8N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 20.3N 54.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 25.3N 59.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 27.0N 61.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 30.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-09-17 04:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 170243 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 33(69) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-17 04:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170242 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 51.5W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 51.5W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.3N 54.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.3N 59.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.0N 61.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 30.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 35.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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