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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-16 04:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160255 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED BETWEEN THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER AND THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * MOBILE BAY * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 87.8W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 87.8W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 87.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-16 04:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 02:36:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 02:36:25 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-16 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 15 the center of Paulette was located near 40.7, -52.4 with movement ENE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 37
2020-09-16 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.7N 52.4W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 52.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2020-09-16 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 160234 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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