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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-14 01:54:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAIN BANDS OF PAULETTE BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO BERMUDA... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Paulette was located near 30.9, -63.6 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 28A
2020-09-14 01:54:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 132354 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 800 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RAIN BANDS OF PAULETTE BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO BERMUDA... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 63.6W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft and Bermuda radar near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 63.6 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda early Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Multiple observing stations on Bermuda have reported tropical-storm-force wind gusts during the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA plane is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and winds will steadily increase through the evening. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Bermuda late tonight and will continue into Monday morning. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-14 01:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 23:54:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 21:25:20 GMT
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-13 22:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 20:41:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 20:41:08 GMT
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-09-13 22:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 132039 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Paulette has recovered from the dry air intrusion that was eroding the eastern eyewall this morning. A ring of deep convection with cloud tops ranging from about -50 to -65 C now completely surrounds a partially cleared eye. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the hurricane earlier this afternoon measured peak flight-level winds of 84 kt, which reduces to about 67 kt at the surface. However, since that time there has been steady improvement in the satellite presentation, and the latest Dvorak satellite T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are now at 4.5, supporting increasing the initial intensity to 75 kt for this advisory. Paulette is expected to remain in a low-shear environment over warm SSTs for the next 24-36 h, so gradual strengthening is likely during that time. Around 48 h from now, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly increase ahead of an approaching mid- upper level trough. This should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 72 h, Paulette is expected to be over waters less that 26 degrees C and should remain over cooler waters for the remainder of the forecast period. Around that same time, global models are indicating that the cyclone will begin to interact with a frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned trough. This should induce a gradual transition of Paulette to an extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed by 120 h, if not sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one and shows Paulette continuing to strengthen as it passes near or over Bermuda early Monday. The forecast also shows Paulette becoming a major hurricane by Monday night, after the cyclone has moved away from Bermuda. This intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA. Paulette is moving northwestward at 11 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. This northwest motion should continue until just after the cyclone passes Bermuda Monday morning. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn north, then northeastward, as it rounds the periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude flow ahead of the approaching trough. Later on in the forecast period a slower eastward motion is indicated once the trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC forecast was nudged only slightly to the left of the previous one, and is in agreement with tightly clustered global and regional track guidance. Tropical storm conditions should reach Bermuda in the next couple of hours, with hurricane force winds arriving there overnight. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 30.6N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 38.1N 57.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 40.3N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 42.4N 47.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 45.5N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 44.4N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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