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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-09-14 04:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140246 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The eye of Paulette is steadily nearing Bermuda. Although it has appeared slightly ragged at times in IR imagery, radar imagery from Bermuda and the NOAA P3 show that the eye and eyewall of Paulette are very well defined in all quadrants but the southwest. The NOAA hurricane hunter plane measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt (which adjust to 80 kt at the surface) and SFMR winds of 70 kt. Taking an average of those supports the initial intensity of 75 kt. The minimum pressure measured by the NOAA aircraft in its last pass through the eye was 976 mb. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for Paulette are very similar to the last advisory. Given its improved structure over the past day or so and its favorable upper-air environment, some additional strengthening appears likely as Paulette approaches Bermuda during the next few hours. Further intensification is possible after the hurricane accelerates northeastward away from Bermuda and Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is expected as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is generally just above the intensity consensus but is within the tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times. Confidence in the track forecast is quite high and the models are in excellent agreement on Paulette's future for the next few days. The hurricane will approach Bermuda and turn northward tomorrow, then accelerate northeastward through the middle of the week. A slower eastward or even southeastward motion is possible by Friday when a large cut-off mid- to upper-level low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track. Key Messages: 1. The eye of Paulette will approach Bermuda early Monday and hurricane conditions are expected to begin on the island within the next few hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into Monday afternoon. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 31.4N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 34.9N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 37.1N 60.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 39.3N 55.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 41.6N 49.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 43.8N 44.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 46.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 43.5N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-14 04:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE AND EYEWALL OF PAULETTE NEARING BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Paulette was located near 31.4, -64.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-09-14 04:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 140246 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 63.6W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.9N 63.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.1N 60.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.3N 55.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.6N 49.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.8N 44.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N 37.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 43.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 64.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2020-09-14 04:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 140246 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 80 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 29
2020-09-14 04:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140246 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...EYE AND EYEWALL OF PAULETTE NEARING BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 64.0W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Paulette is forecast to continue moving northwestward overnight and then turn northward on Monday. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected late Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track the eye of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda early Monday morning. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast as Paulette moves closer to Bermuda overnight and early Monday. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Winds have steadily increased on Bermuda during the past few hours and will continue to increase during the next few hours. An unofficial observing station at Cedarvale South recently reported a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). An automated station at Cresent reported a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h), and another station at Pearl Island reported a gust of 70 mph (112 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the hurricane hunter plane is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and winds will steadily increase tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Bermuda overnight and will continue into Monday morning. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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