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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2021-09-10 04:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 209 FONT12 KNHC 100244 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 45(45) 48(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 5( 5) 70(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 61(61) 24(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X 15(15) 32(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 20(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BURGEO NFLD 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 34 2 51(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-10 04:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY STAYING LARGE AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 9 the center of Larry was located near 35.5, -62.3 with movement N at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 38
2021-09-10 04:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 158 WTNT22 KNHC 100244 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO BONAVISTA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..380NE 320SE 260SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 62.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 230SE 210SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 260SE 250SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 58.1N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...320NE 300SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 62.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 38
2021-09-10 04:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 159 WTNT32 KNHC 100244 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...LARRY STAYING LARGE AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 62.3W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 62.3 West. Larry is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h). A further increase in forward speed is expected tonight with a turn to the northeast forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is now forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Greenland by the end of the weekend. Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-10 01:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY NOW MOVING NORTH AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 9 the center of Larry was located near 34.2, -62.3 with movement N at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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at2al122021
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