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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 39
2021-09-10 10:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 100843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 61.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has extended the Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of southeastern Newfoundland westward to Francois and along the northern coast of southeastern Newfoundland to Fogo Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 61.8 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A turn to the northeast with a further increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is now forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Greenland by the end of the weekend. Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland by late today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2021-09-10 10:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 100843 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 46(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 98(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 87(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X 33(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 97(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X 71(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) BURGEO NFLD 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 4 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 34 67 12(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SABLE ISLAND 50 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-09-10 10:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100843 PWSEP5 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 1 13(14) 20(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 25N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 11
2021-09-10 10:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100843 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...OLAF STRADDLING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 110.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning south of Todos Santos and south of Los Barriles. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Baja California Sur Mexico south of Todos Santos * Baja California Sur Mexico south of Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 110.7 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today and then turn westward away from land by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Olaf is forecast to remain a hurricane while it moves along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today. It is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight when it begins to move away from land and then degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring within southern portions of their respective warning areas and will spread northward across portions of Baja California Sur today. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should end over Baja California Sur by tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 39
2021-09-10 10:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 100843 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WESTWARD TO FRANCOIS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TO FOGO ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO FOGO ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 61.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......210NE 210SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..380NE 350SE 280SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 61.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.9N 59.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.6N 53.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 250SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 60.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 480SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 61.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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