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Post-Tropical Cyclone FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 27

2016-08-23 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 231432 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 64.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 64.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 64.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression FIONA Graphics

2016-08-23 11:12:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:52:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Aug 2016 09:07:38 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Depression FIONA (AT1/AL062016)

2016-08-23 10:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FIONA BARELY HOLDING ON AS A DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 23 the center of FIONA was located near 25.8, -63.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 26

2016-08-23 10:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230849 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Fiona is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone with a small burst of deep convection confined mainly to the southeastern quadrant due to moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on a Dvorak intensity estimate of 2.0/30 kt from TAFB, and an ADT estimate of T2.2/32 kt from UW-CIMSS. The initial motion is a little slower at 290/11 kt. Fiona is forecast to gradually turn northwestward and decelerate as the small cyclone moves toward and into a break in the Bermuda-Azores ridge. The NHC forecast track is down the middle of the tightly packed model guidance, and lies close to consensus track model TVCN. Strong westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been plaguing Fiona for the past several days is forecast to weaken considerably during the next 36 hours, which would normally support some strengthening. However, the small cyclone is expected to remain embedded in a region of dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 60 percent during that time, decreasing to less than 50 percent by 72 hours, which should inhibit the development of persistent deep convection near the center. The result is that Fiona is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast remains below the consensus model IVCN and the SHIPS/LGEM models, and instead follows the weakening trend depicted in the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 25.8N 63.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 26.2N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 27.1N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 28.1N 68.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 28.9N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 30.0N 70.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 30.6N 71.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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