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Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)

2016-08-21 16:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FIONA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 21 the center of FIONA was located near 22.9, -53.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 19

2016-08-21 16:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 211444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2016 ...FIONA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 53.3W ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 53.3 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Fiona could weaken to a tropical depression later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 19

2016-08-21 16:44:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 211444 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 53.3W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 53.3W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.6N 55.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.3N 58.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 60.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.8N 62.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.7N 65.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 53.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm FIONA Graphics

2016-08-21 10:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Aug 2016 08:52:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Aug 2016 08:49:33 GMT

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 18

2016-08-21 10:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210851 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2016 After the earlier convective bursting episode and resultant spin up of the low-level wind field, strong westerly shear of at least 30 kt has stripped away the convective cloud shield, leaving a fully exposed low-level circulation center that is easy to locate. Assuming some spin down of the circulation due to the loss of convection, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt. Now that Fiona's circulation has become a little more shallow, the low-level center has turned more westward and the cyclone is now moving 295/14 kt. The global models are in good agreement on a mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of Fiona remaining in place for the next few days, which should keep the small cyclone moving in a general west-northwest direction through 72 hours. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken due to an approaching frontal system, which should allow Fiona or its remnant circulation to slow down and turn northwestward. The new track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the TVCN consensus model forecast. During the next 24 hours or so, Fiona is forecast to traverse through a band of strong westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt and dry mid-level air with humidity values near 40 percent. As a result, gradual weakening is expected due to the small cyclone likely not being able to sustain deep convection for long periods of time. The new intensity forecast holds onto the previous trend of Fiona weakening into a remnant low by 72 hours. However, a lot of uncertainty remains with this intensity forecast. Strong instability that will be present due to very warm SSTs of 29C-30C and a cool upper-level troposphere, which could produce periodic bursts of intense convection that could sustain the low-level vortex until environmental become more favorable for strengthening on days 4 and 5. Most of the global models continue to depict a weak low for at least the next 5 days, except for the ECMWF model, which weakens Fiona to an open trough by 48 hours. The NHC intensity remains a compromise of these extremes and shows dissipation by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 22.2N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 22.9N 53.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 23.8N 56.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 24.5N 58.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 25.3N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 27.0N 64.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 29.7N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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