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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-08-21 04:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210249 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 Somewhat surprisingly, two recent ASCAT passes showed that Fiona is producing 45-kt winds in its northeastern quadrant. This intensity is also supported by the latest ADT estimate. Despite the increase in maximum winds, the next 36 hours will be critical for Fiona's survival as a tropical cyclone. During this period, westerly shear of 30 kt will be at its strongest, and mid-level relative humidities will be at their lowest. Therefore, gradual weakening is anticipated, and it's entirely possible that Fiona could soon struggle to maintain organized deep convection. For now, the NHC official forecast shows Fiona becoming a remnant low by 72 hours. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast. If Fiona can survive the next 36 hours, it might persist as a weak tropical cyclone through the end of the forecast period since environmental conditions do become a little more favorable in a couple of days. It should be noted that most of the global models hang onto a weak low for at least the next 5 days, with the exception of the ECMWF which shows the low opening up into a trough by 48 hours. For now, the NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by day 5 as a compromise. Fiona's motion has been wavering between west-northwest and northwest, and the latest estimate is 305/13 kt. Low-level ridging should keep Fiona on this general trajectory for the next 72 hours or so, followed by a northwestward turn with a decrease in speed by day 4 when the cyclone approaches a stalled frontal boundary off the east coast of the United States. The NHC official forecast has been nudged south and west to be closer to the TVCN multi-model consensus, especially toward the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 21.7N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 22.4N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 23.3N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 24.2N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 24.9N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 26.6N 63.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z 29.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2016-08-21 04:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 210248 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0300 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)
2016-08-21 04:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT FIONA IS PRODUCING 50-MPH WINDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 20 the center of FIONA was located near 21.7, -50.1 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 17
2016-08-21 04:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 ...SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT FIONA IS PRODUCING 50-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 50.1W ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 50.1 West. Fiona is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 17
2016-08-21 04:48:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210248 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0300 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 50.1W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 50.1W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 49.6W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.4N 52.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.3N 54.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.2N 57.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.9N 59.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.6N 63.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 50.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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