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Tropical Depression FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2016-08-22 16:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 221433 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 23
2016-08-22 16:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 221433 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 59.7W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 59.7W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 59.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.3N 61.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.1N 63.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 65.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.1N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 31.5N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 59.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression FIONA Graphics
2016-08-22 10:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Aug 2016 08:43:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Aug 2016 08:38:34 GMT
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fiona
Tropical Depression FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2016-08-22 10:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220842 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2016 Although deep convection has continued to pulse near the center of Fiona, recent scatterometer wind data and various satellite classifications support maintaining the small but remarkably resilient cyclone as a 30-kt tropical depression. The intensity forecast still remains something of an enigma. Strong westerly wind shear is forecast to persist for the next 12-18 hours, after which the upper-level winds relax somewhat and become a little more conducive for strengthening to occur. However, dry mid-level air of 40-50 percent humidity is also forecast to surround the cyclone, which could act to hinder the development of persistent deep convection for the next 24-36 hours. Therefore, if Fiona can survive the aforementioned hostile conditions during the next 24 hours or so, then some restrengthening or maintaining the status as a tropical cyclone is possible. The global models still disagree on the future of Fiona and have flipped-flopped, with the ECMWF no longer showing dissipation in 5 days, which is similar to the UKMET solution, whereas the GFS now shows Fiona degenerating into an open trough between 96-120 hours. The NHC forecast maintains continuity and indicates dissipation in 5 days as a compromise between these possibilities. The initial motion estimate remains 290/16 kt. Although there is uncertainty in the future status of Fiona, the NHC model guidance is in pretty good agreement on the track of the cyclone for the next 72 hours. The small cyclone is forecast to move quickly west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 3 days, and then slow down considerably on day 4 and turn northward into a weakness in the ridge. The new official forecast track is basically just an update of the previous track through 72 hours, and then is a little to the right of the previous forecast on day 4, which leans closer to the solutions of the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 24.4N 58.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 25.0N 60.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 25.8N 62.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 26.6N 64.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 27.6N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 29.8N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 31.3N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2016-08-22 10:39:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 220839 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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