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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-14 16:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 14 the center of Grace was located near 16.2, -57.9 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-14 16:53:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 141453 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 1(20) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 2(21) X(21) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 26(35) 1(36) X(36) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 1(31) X(31) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 34(34) 8(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) 21(53) 1(54) X(54) 1(55) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 5(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 58(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) VIEQUES PR 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 10(10) 45(55) X(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X 21(21) 43(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT CROIX 50 X 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 41(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABA 34 X 66(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) SABA 50 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SABA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 69(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 68(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 1 53(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BARBUDA 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANTIGUA 34 1 68(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ANTIGUA 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ANTIGUA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 2 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-14 16:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141452 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO...AND FOR THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO TO CABO ENGANO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO CABO ENGANO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 57.9W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 57.9W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.8N 60.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 66.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.6N 68.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 70.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 72.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.8N 77.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.4N 81.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 57.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-14 13:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 14 the center of Grace was located near 15.9, -56.6 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-08-14 13:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141137 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...GRACE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 56.6W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in the Dominican Republic and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 56.6 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the west with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Weakening is expected early next week as the system interacts with the Greater Antilles. Grace is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area over the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts later today into Monday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. Heavy rainfall from this system could impact Florida late next week. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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