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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-15 13:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED GRACE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 8:00 AM AST Sun Aug 15 the center of Grace was located near 17.1, -65.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 8A
2021-08-15 13:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151144 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...DISORGANIZED GRACE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 65.4W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warnings for Saba and Sint Eustatius have been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warnings for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy have been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 65.4 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Grace reaches Hispaniola on Monday. Weakening is forecast as the system crosses Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Little change in strength is expected on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Sunday into Tuesday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-15 11:01:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 09:01:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 09:01:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-15 10:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150859 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 Radar data from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, as well as satellite images, indicate that Grace is still not a well-organized tropical cyclone, although over the past few hours banding features have become more evident and the outflow has improved. An earlier ASCAT-C overpass showed peak winds of 30 kt associated with Grace, and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 35 kt. Assuming some undersampling from the ASCAT instrument, the initial intensity estimate remains 35 kt for this advisory. Grace continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest, or 285/18 kt to the south of a strong mid-level ridge. Aside from the HWRF, which is a northern outlier and has not performed particularly well for Fred or Grace, and also the Canadian model, which is a southern outlier, the track guidance has come into better agreement on the future path of Grace. The cyclone is expected to slow its forward speed today, and maintain a west-northwestward motion to the south of the ridge for the next several days. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one through 72 h, and then was adjusted a little to the south of the previous one thereafter. On this path, Grace would pass just south of Puerto Rico later today, cross Hispaniola tonight through Monday night, then move along the northern coast of Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday. Grace is in an environment favorable for intensification, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening to 45 kt before it reaches the Dominican Republic Monday morning. This portion of the forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models. The intensity forecast becomes highly uncertain thereafter, and is dependent on how much of the Greater Antilles the cyclone interacts with. Based on the current track forecast, Grace would cross a large portion of the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, then interact with the landmass of Cuba for a couple of days. There is a decent chance that the low-level center of Grace could dissipate over Hispaniola as the system opens back into a tropical wave. However, due to the possibility of the center remaining intact after crossing that landmass, the NHC forecast calls for weakening followed by little change in strength thereafter as it moves along the Cuban coastline. The latest NHC intensity forecast beyond 24 h is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the FSU Superensemble. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Leewards Islands this morning and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over western portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday and Monday night. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 17.5N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 18.3N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 18.9N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA 48H 17/0600Z 19.8N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA 60H 17/1800Z 20.9N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 18/0600Z 22.0N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR CUBA COAST 96H 19/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 25.6N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-15 10:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 15 the center of Grace was located near 16.9, -64.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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