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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 38
2017-09-27 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271448 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 ...LEE BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 56.8W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1765 MI...2845 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 56.8 West. Lee is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. Lee should turn to the north on Thursday and accelerate to the northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2017-09-27 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 271448 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 38
2017-09-27 16:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 271448 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 56.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 56.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 56.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.4N 57.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.0N 57.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 46.5N 34.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 140SE 140SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 56.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-27 10:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2017 08:41:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2017 09:22:31 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 37
2017-09-27 10:35:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270835 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lee has been undergoing some cloud structural changes during the past several hours. The eye has nearly doubled in size to 30 miles in diameter, the central pressure indicated in the CIMSS Objective Dvorak technique has increased a few millibars, and an earlier 2147 UTC WindSAT overpass revealed a developing outer ring surrounding the partially opened inner core. These aforementioned cloud pattern alterations arguably point to an undergoing eyewall replacement cycle, and the possibility of intensification in the short term. The initial intensity of 95 kt remains above the subjective T-numbers, and is close to the CIMSS ADT estimated intensity. The official intensity forecast reflects the possibility of Lee becoming a major hurricane later today before a weakening trend commences by early Wednesday. The global models and the FSU Cyclone Phase Evolution product agree that Lee will maintain tropical characteristics through day 3. Afterward, the guidance shows the cyclone quickly absorbed by an existing larger baroclinic system. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. Lee should turn gradually northwestward later today, and generally northward on Thursday as the cyclone is steered by the southwestern peripheral flow of a subtropical ridge over the east-central Atlantic. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, Lee is forecast to accelerate northeastward within the strong mid-latitude southwesterly flow and ultimately dissipate in 72 hours. The model guidance suite continues to trend toward the west through the 36-hour period, and the official forecast follows suit. Beyond that time frame, the forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory and is nudged toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus technique model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 30.2N 56.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 30.8N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 32.1N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 34.5N 56.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 37.8N 53.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 46.3N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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