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Home › lee

 

Tag: lee

Hurricane Lee Graphics

2017-09-24 22:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 20:37:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 21:22:24 GMT

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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2017-09-24 22:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 242031 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 27

2017-09-24 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 242031 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 Lee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense overcast. SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates are all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that remains 80 kt. The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low vertical shear and warm waters. However, the HWRF and COAMPS dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its own cold wake in a couple of days. By day 4 or 5, the environment should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of Hurricane Maria. The official intensity forecast is in between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory. The system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The hurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets re-established north of Lee. By day 4 the system should recurve and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model consensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated faster toward the northeast by day 5. The official track forecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach. Lee is a tiny hurricane. The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical storm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the center. The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane over time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN multi-model scheme. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 31.3N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 31.0N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 30.7N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 30.3N 50.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 30.4N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 37.0N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 27

2017-09-24 22:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242031 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 49.7W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 49.7W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.0N 49.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.7N 49.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.3N 50.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.4N 51.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 33.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 37.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)

2017-09-24 22:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TINY LEE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM LAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.3, -49.7 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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