je.st
news
Tag: lee
Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Advisory Number 20
2017-09-23 10:53:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230853 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 49.2W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 49.2W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 32.3N 49.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 32.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.2N 47.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.7N 46.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 29.8N 45.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 49.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
lee
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Lee Graphics
2017-09-23 04:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 02:56:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 03:21:59 GMT
Tags: lee
graphics
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-09-23 04:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230252 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 Several microwave overpasses between 2100 and 2200 UTC indicated that Lee was becoming better organized, at least at the mid-levels. In particular, a WindSat overpass near 21Z indicated that a mid-level eye was already forming. Since that time, however, cloud tops have warmed, the CDO has shrunk, and a GPM overpass around 0100 UTC showed that most of the convection is currently confined to the southeast semicircle of the tropical storm. The UW-CIMSS ADT supports an intensity of 35 kt, and the TAFB Dvorak analyst indicated that the subjective classification would have been higher, if the technique wasn't constrained by the fact that classifications on Lee only recently restarted. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt. The intensity forecast for Lee is highly uncertain. The tropical storm is very small, and small cyclones often quickly strengthen or weaken. Furthermore, Lee is small enough that some of our models (and many of our observing platforms) may have trouble resolving the inner core of the storm. Given the current convective state of Lee, significant strengthening in the short term seems unlikely. However, the cyclone is expected to be in a fairly unstable, low shear environment for at least the next 3 days, so it is possible that rapid intensification could occur at some time during that period. On the other hand, I can't rule out that the cyclone could dissipate entirely, as depicted by the GFS, within a couple days. For now, my forecast is closest to the HWRF for the first 72 h, since that model tends to do well in low-shear environments and should have sufficient resolution to model Lee's core. After that time, the forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. Lee has continued to move north around 6 kt. Little change has been made to the track forecast, and Lee is still forecast to move around a subtropical ridge for the next 72 h. At days 4 and 5, a ridge building between Lee and Maria to the west should cause a turn more toward the south, as long as Lee is sufficiently deep to be steered by that feature. The forecast continues to be close to the ECMWF, since it is still the global model with the strongest representation of Lee, in line with the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 31.5N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 32.2N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 32.5N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 32.4N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 32.1N 45.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 31.3N 43.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 30.0N 42.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 29.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
lee
storm
Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-23 04:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 22 the center of Lee was located near 31.5, -49.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
lee
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 19
2017-09-23 04:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 230251 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 ...LEE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 49.0W ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 49.0 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the east and a resumption of the current speed on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lee could be near hurricane strength by the end of the weekend. Lee is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Sites : [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] next »